The government's Bureau of Labor Statistics announced this morning that in January, the American economy lost another 20,000 jobs, while the unemployment rate declined to 9.7% from 10%. One the surface, this seems contradictory -- how can there be both fewer jobs and fewer unemployed persons? One answer is that the numbers come from two different surveys. The jobs data come from the "establishment survey" that tracks business payrolls. The unemployment data come from the "household survey" that interviews family members. Another answer is that these data eventually get "revised" by the government to end up more in line with each other; as the New York Times article on this morning's release reports, "The government revised its job loss numbers for November, saying the economy gained 64,000 in that month rather than 4,000. But the numbers in December were much worse than previously stated; the economy lost 150,000 jobs rather than the 85,000 originally reported." If a business revised its earnings figures this regularly, the Securities and Exchange Commission would be all over them. But the government answers, or doesn't answer, to its own rules. And that doesn't even mention whether the numbers are "seasonally adjusted," which is a whole nother ballgame.
A Statistical Anomoly
https://www.futureofcapitalism.com/2010/02/a-statistical-anomoly
by Editor | receive the latest by email: subscribe to the free futureofcapitalism.com mailing list