On the Red Sox, an Expert Fail

http://www.futureofcapitalism.com/2011/04/on-the-red-sox-an-expert-fail

Major League Baseball plays a long season, and the Red Sox may yet turn it around after losing seven games and winning just one in their first eight. But at the moment. it's not looking so good for the "experts." Sports Illustrated predicted the Red Sox would win 100 games and win the World Series. At ESPN, 33 of its 45 pundits predicted the Red Sox would win the World Series.

If it's this hard to predict baseball, imagine how hard it is to forecast developments in other complex systems. The Federal Reserve tries to fine-tune the performance of the nation's economy through monetary policy. Climatologists try to forecast how warm it will be 50 or 100 years from now and what that will do to sea levels. Predictions in complex systems are hard. That doesn't mean they should never be attempted or acted upon, just that they should be treated with the skepticism they deserve.

by Ira Stoll  |  Apr 9, 2011 at 11:03 pm Related Topics:  Federal Reserve, Hayek receive the latest by email: subscribe to the free futureofcapitalism.com mailing list