Allan Meltzer, a professor at Carnegie Mellon, looks ahead at interest rates and the effect on the federal budget:
how high will the Fed push up interest rates? Once rates get to 5% or 6%, assuming inflation remains dormant, the Fed can expect a backlash from Congress, the administration, unions, homebuilders, and others.
When contemplating the consequences of this, remember that 40% of US government debt comes due within two years. Rolling it over at higher rates of 4% or 5% would add more than $100 billion to the budget deficit. And that is just the first two years. The budget cost increases every year, as more of the debt rolls over...