Krugman on the Forecasters

http://www.futureofcapitalism.com/2009/07/krugman-on-the-forecasters

Here's Paul Krugman writing in the New York Times this morning:

all the signs point to a "jobless recovery": on average, forecasters surveyed by The Wall Street Journal believe that the unemployment rate will keep rising into next year, and that it will be as high at the end of 2010 as it is now...To head off this outcome — and remember, this isn't what economic Cassandras are saying; it's the forecasting consensus — we'd need to get another round of fiscal stimulus under way very soon.

Here's the Wall Street Journal article on its own survey of economic forecasters:

Most economists believe the U.S. doesn't need another round of stimulus now despite expectations of continued severe job losses. Just eight of 51 economists in The Wall Street Journal's latest forecasting survey said more stimulus is necessary...

Some "consensus." The most charitable interpretation is that it is an innocent error of imprecise writing by Mr. Krugman, but he sure leaves room for a reader who has not seen the Journal article to think that the "consensus" to which he refers does not relate to the rise of unemployment but to the need for more "stimulus."

by Editor  |  Jul 13, 2009 at 7:08 am Related Topics:  Paul Krugman, Stimulus receive the latest by email: subscribe to the free futureofcapitalism.com mailing list