Frederick Van Bennekom, a FutureOfCapitalism community member who is a professional survey design expert at Great Brook, sends some thoughts on the New York Times news article about its own poll:
Since I'm a surveyor, I had to look at the Times survey. A couple of things jumped out.
In the description of the survey, I found this line in the article interesting: "The poll, conducted between July 11 and 16 and including 982 registered voters..."
It leaves a lot unsaid, namely that it included 147 people who were not registered. 82% of respondents were registered, yet 88% said they intend to vote. Hmmm...
Then there's this gross misstatement from the write-up:
"Nearly half of voters say the current economic plight stems from the policies of Mr. Obama's predecessor, George W. Bush, which most voters expect Mr. Romney would return to. "
The actual question is:
41. Looking back, how much do you think the economic policies of George W. Bush contributed to the nation's economic downturn – a lot, some, not much, or not at all?
A lot Some Not much Not at all DK/NA
7/11-16/12 48 33 12 6 2
42. Looking back, how much do you think the economic policies of Barack Obama contributed to the nation's economic downturn – a lot, some, not much, or not at all?A lot Some Not much Not at all DK/NA
7/11-16/12 34 30 23 12 1
The question does NOT say "current economic plight." The question does not put forth a timeframe, which allows the Times to lie with a straight face.
That second piece is as gross a distortion as you will find. The "nation's economic downturn" happened in 2008-9. Our economy is currently growing, granted, at a pathetic rate, which most people would realize. So, when Question 41 uses the phrase "economic downturn," the respondent would think back to 2008-9, especially when the question opens with "Looking back". That doesn't mean respondents feel Bush is responsible for today's problems.
The proper, unbiased phrasing for the question would be, "Thinking about the current state of the economy, to what extent do you consider [Bush/Obama] to blame for the economic problems our country currently faces?"
