Three points from Fed Chairman Powell's press conference today struck me as worth flagging. One was his comment that the Fed is "likely at or near the peak rate for this cycle." The second was an indication that they'd likely start cutting before inflation hits 2 percent. And a third was a recollection that at this time last year, many of the "experts" were predicting a recession.
One additional bonus point: a reporter asked about the contrast between what seems like generally good economic data—diminishing inflation, low unemployment—and how Americans are feeling about their personal finances. That disconnect is one I've been noticing more frequently lately. Last Saturday's Wall Street Journal, for example, had one article on "tools to make your Disney trip cheaper" and a second about a reporter on a clothes shopping trip who rejected a $450 vest and a $698 jacket and finally settled instead on a jacket that cost $68. Another recent Journal piece was about buying clothes at discount warehouse retailer Costco. People are finding ways to adjust their households dynamically to the challenges of inflation. The Fed maybe figures with some reason that the concern is less any sort of froth or excess and more the danger that staying too tight too long ("overcooking the turkey") will make the statistics match the mood.