A third party as a way out of the Trump-Biden choice in 2024? Political scientist Michael Mandelbaum ("A Third Party Candidate?," American Purpose) sees it as unlikely: "The American political landscape lacks an issue that, like race in the late 1960s and the deficit in the early 1990s, large numbers of voters believe is not being adequately addressed by the two major parties....Perhaps some day national indebtedness will become an issue about which voters believe the two major parties have behaved in dangerously derelict fashion, which will generate support for an alternative to these parties' presidential candidates; but there is no evidence that that day will arrive in 2024."
He offers another possible way out: "A public episode dramatically and unmistakably illustrating serious physical or cognitive infirmity, or both, might turn the public so strongly against Joe Biden's presidential candidacy that the Democratic Party would feel compelled to replace him. Similarly, Donald Trump might be convicted of one or more of the felonies with which he has been charged, which might, in turn, disqualify him for the presidency in the eyes even of Republicans previously loyal to him. If such episodes occurred after either or both men had been formally nominated, it would fall to their party's leaders to select their replacements. In that case, these leaders would be most likely to promote the party's vice-presidential nominee to the top of the ticket."
