Probability

Reader comment on: Misinformed Times, or Misinformed Nate Silver

Submitted by Allannde (United States), Oct 30, 2012 01:39

I wager that Nate is correct. He is reporting the product of his carefully calibrated statistical model not his opinion. He has been remarkably correct before (and not partisain).

But Nate does not predict, he suggests likely outcomes. If the odds are one in four of a certain outcome, the less likely outcome is certain to happen every fourth time. The kicker is that the "fourth time" could be the next time.

Some people do not grasp the meaning of "probability".

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